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The Shift in Political Support
Sir Keir Starmer has won a significant parliamentary majority, but with surprisingly thin support. Labour gained only 34% of the vote, reflecting the electorate’s extreme fickleness.
Distrust in Governments
According to a new report from the National Centre for Social Research, trust and confidence in governments are at an all-time low. 45% of respondents would "almost never" trust British governments to prioritize the nation’s needs over their own party’s interests, while 58% would never trust politicians to tell the truth when in a tight corner.
The Challenge for Labour
The challenge for Labour is not only to govern effectively but also to restore trust. If it fails to do so, there is a significant risk of being swept out of power next time. When trust in respectable policy and conventional politics collapses, a large proportion of the electorate may turn to mendacious demagogues.
The Difficulty of Governing
Labour has promised to make things better while changing little. This caution may make it difficult to govern, especially in an idling economy. The imperative to improve public services, such as the National Health Service and local government, will be challenging without borrowing more or raising taxes.
The Economy and Brexit
The economy has been struggling since the 2007-09 financial crisis, and Brexit has exacerbated the issue. The overall output losses of Brexit are at least 5 percentage points of GDP, and support for right-wing populist parties has risen in regions that experienced Brexit-related output losses.
The Populist Card
The Conservatives cannot play the populist card as well as Nigel Farage, but Labour needs to restore trust by delivering results. The big question is whether Keir Starmer can make that happen.
Conclusion
The UK’s political landscape is complex and challenging. Labour needs to restore trust by delivering results while navigating the difficulties of governing. Andy Haldane, former Bank of England chief economist, argues that bold steps are needed, including coming closer to the EU, radically liberalizing planning, and relaxing regulations. These steps will not be easy, but breaking promises would further worsen the lack of trust.
FAQs
Q: Why did Labour win with only 34% of the vote?
A: The electorate’s extreme fickleness and the shift in support for the Conservatives since their big victory in 2019.
Q: Why is trust in governments at an all-time low?
A: According to the National Centre for Social Research report, 45% of respondents would "almost never" trust British governments to prioritize the nation’s needs over their own party’s interests.
Q: What are the challenges for Labour?
A: Restoring trust while governing effectively, improving public services, and navigating the difficulties of an idling economy.
Q: What are the implications of Brexit on the economy?
A: The overall output losses of Brexit are at least 5 percentage points of GDP, and support for right-wing populist parties has risen in regions that experienced Brexit-related output losses.
Q: How can Labour restore trust?
A: By delivering results, coming closer to the EU, radically liberalizing planning, relaxing regulations, and taking bold steps to improve public services and administration.
Q: Who wrote this article?
A: Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times.
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