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Labour’s Historic Victory: What It Means for British Politics

The Labour party has won a parliamentary majority for the fourth time in British history, but this time with a smaller number of votes than in the previous election. This phenomenon has been observed in 1964, February 1974, and 1997. What does this mean for British politics?

The Old Truths

Firstly, what matters is not the number of votes you get, but where you get them. Clement Attlee is the only Labour leader to have won an election with a higher turnout and more votes than the party received in the preceding elections. Even then, the wartime circumstances were exceptional.

Secondly, there is a group of voters whose electoral preferences are essentially between voting Tory and not voting at all. When they are scared of the Labour party, they turn out to vote, as they did in record numbers in 1992. When they aren’t, they stay home.

New Factors at Play

However, some things about Starmer’s victory reflect genuine changes in electoral conditions that weren’t the case for Attlee, Wilson, or Blair. Nigel Farage’s Reform party gave former Tories a new way to abandon a Conservative government they thought needed to change, without having to stay at home or vote directly for Labour.

This is one reason why the Tories would be unwise to believe that winning the next election is as simple as bolting the votes Reform got on Thursday on to the Conservative pile. Without fixing some of the same things that caused voters to switch directly to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, no rightward shift on immigration or any other single issue is going to lure over enough Reform voters to win a majority.

Voter Volatility

Another factor is that voters in general are more volatile. One factor in Rishi Sunak getting fewer seats than Major did in 1997 is that he had a much worse administrative record. But the other is that voters are now more willing to shop around and more willing to vote for different parties.

This is part of why the relatively modest swing to Labour nationwide yielded a landslide that came close to equalling the one of 1997. One of the handful of seats that Labour won in 2019 but lost in 2024 exemplifies the trend: the seat now named Bristol Central has, in a relatively short amount of time, been represented by a Conservative, a Liberal Democrat, a Labour MP, and now a Green.

The Rise of Smaller Parties

The first factor that underpins the new volatility is the rise of smaller parties. Voters find it easier to jump from the Conservatives or Labour to these than they do to switch directly between the two biggest parties. But once they have made the leap to the Liberal Democrats, an independent, the Greens, or Reform, they are more willing to shift to a different big party than the one they originally defected from.

The Global Financial Crisis

The second factor is the global financial crisis of 2008. The UK’s economic performance has never recovered from that blow, though other factors, such as austerity, Brexit, the pandemic, and the invasion of Ukraine have also played their part. That means less money, which means less disposable income and lower tax receipts. That means voters are poorer and the public realm has to do more with less. That makes voters unhappy, and they then have more options they are willing to contemplate in response.

Conclusion

Taken together, this suggests that Labour is right to fear — and the Tories correct to hope — that if Starmer gets into trouble and the Conservatives make the right choices, they can win again soon. But the Tories should be aware that increased volatility also means that if Labour succeeds in office and they make the wrong decisions, the next election could be even worse.

FAQs

Q: What is the significance of Labour’s victory in the context of British politics?
A: Labour’s victory marks the fourth time in British history that the party has won a majority with a smaller number of votes than in the previous election.

Q: What are the old truths in British politics?
A: What matters is not the number of votes you get, but where you get them. There is also a group of voters whose electoral preferences are essentially between voting Tory and not voting at all.

Q: What are the new factors at play in British politics?
A: The rise of smaller parties and the global financial crisis of 2008 are two key factors that have contributed to increased voter volatility.

Q: How has the rise of smaller parties affected voter behavior?
A: Voters find it easier to jump from the Conservatives or Labour to smaller parties, and once they have made the leap, they are more willing to shift to a different big party than the one they originally defected from.

Q: What is the significance of the global financial crisis of 2008 in British politics?
A: The crisis has had a lasting impact on the UK’s economic performance, leading to reduced disposable income and lower tax receipts, which has made voters unhappier and more willing to contemplate different options.

Author: www.ft.com

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