Unlocking the Secrets of Mortgage Rates
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The National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist on Mortgage Rates
According to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, mortgage rates may have reached a new normal of around 6 percent. This prediction comes as the average 30-year mortgage rate hovers around 7 percent, with some experts suggesting rates may even fall further.
Navigating the Unpredictable Housing Market
The past two years have been marked by unprecedented uncertainty in the housing market, making it challenging for economists to accurately predict trends. Matthew Gardner, a real estate economist in Seattle, notes that the rules were broken in a thousand different ways, making it essential to stay informed and adapt to changing conditions.
Tracking Yun’s Predictions: A Timeline of Mortgage Rate Projections
Below is a review of Lawrence Yun’s public statements and forecasts from July 2022 to June 2024. It highlights the predictions made by the NAR Chief Economist and the reality of what transpired.
June 2022
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to rise due to high inflation
- Reality: Average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.42 percent
July 2022
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to drop as inflation slows
- Reality: Rates continued to rise
July 20, 2022
- Prediction: Inflation to peak and mortgage rates to stabilize
- Reality: Inflation peaked in June 2022 and rates continued to rise
July 27, 2022
- Prediction: Home sales to rise by early 2023
- Reality: Home sales fell despite predictions
September 28, 2022
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to settle at 7 percent
- Reality: Mortgage rates soared to 7.08 percent in November
October 28, 2022
- Prediction: New normal for mortgage rates
- Reality: Mortgage rates continued to rise
November 10, 2022
- Prediction: 30-year mortgage rates to drop to around 6 percent
- Reality: Rates continued to rise
December 13, 2022
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to settle at 5.7 percent
- Reality: Rates ended the year at 6.61 percent
January 12, 2023
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to drop below 6 percent
- Reality: Rates continued to rise
February 3, 2023
- Prediction: Rates to fall as inflation slows
- Reality: Rates continued to rise
April 12, 2023
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to settle at around 6 percent by the end of the year
- Reality: Rates ended the year at 6.61 percent but rose to 7.22 percent in March
June 13, 2023
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to remain bouncy but settle towards 6 percent by the end of the year
- Reality: Rates remained stubbornly high
February 13, 2024
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to stay around 7 percent
- Reality: Rates were a shade below 7 percent as of last week
June 7, 2024
- Prediction: Mortgage rates to remain stuck at near 7 percent
- Reality: Unclear
Conclusion
The housing market continues to be marked by unpredictability, with mortgage rates proving difficult to forecast. It is essential for real estate professionals, investors, and homeowners to stay informed and adapt to changing conditions. The NAR Chief Economist’s predictions, as reflected in the timeline above, demonstrate the complexities and challenges of predicting mortgage rate trends.
FAQs
Q: How did Lawrence Yun’s predictions stack up against reality?
A: Yun’s predictions were often off the mark, reflecting the unpredictability of the housing market.
Q: What are the current mortgage rates?
A: As of last week, mortgage rates were a shade below 7 percent.
Q: Will mortgage rates continue to fall?
A: Unclear. Predictions made in June 2024 suggest rates may remain stuck around 7 percent.
Q: What should real estate professionals and homeowners do?
A: Stay informed, adapt to changing conditions, and consider seeking professional advice.
Q: Are there any other factors influencing mortgage rates?
A: Yes. Inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and government borrowing can all impact mortgage rates.
Q: Is there a new normal for mortgage rates?
A: According to Lawrence Yun, mortgage rates may have reached a new normal of around 6 percent.
Author: www.inman.com
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