Stock Market Warning: Goldman Sachs Predicts Summer Correction
Goldman Sachs’ Tactical Strategist Warns of a Market Drop
The S&P 500 Index, a widely followed stock market benchmark, is expected to decline, according to Scott Rubner, a tactical strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Rubner warns that the market has nowhere to go but down, and advises investors not to buy into the current market dip.
Historical Significance of July 17
Rubner cites historical data going back to 1928, which shows that July 17 has marked a turning point for the S&P 500 Index. According to his analysis, August typically follows, which is known for being the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds.
Weak Seasonality and Stretched Positioning
Rubner believes that the current market is characterized by weak seasonality, stretched positioning, and overpriced stocks. With all the good news already priced in, the index is on the precipice of a summer correction. Goldman’s trading desk has been warning of this potential correction since early June.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Slump
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recently slumped due to concerns about U.S. politicians taking a harder stance on China and Taiwan, which would affect global chipmakers.
Why the Market is Expected to Drop
Rubner explains that after the S&P 500 hit 38 new all-time highs in 2024, the market is left exposed to weak inflows and remains vulnerable to negative headlines. He notes that there are no predicted inflows in August from passive investors or mutual funds, as capital has already been deployed for the third quarter. Additionally, trend-following systematic funds have reached maximum length, indicating that there is no room for further buying.
Other Factors that Won’t Support the Market
Rubner believes that strong earnings, a possible near-term interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and the rising odds of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election will not provide a boost for the market. He argues that these events are already getting priced into the market, and the bar for earnings is remarkably high.
Recommendations
Rubner recommends buying the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 December lookback put options, which allow the holder to exercise a derivative at the most beneficial price of the underlying asset, over the life of the option.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Goldman Sachs’ tactical strategist Scott Rubner warns of a potential summer correction in the S&P 500 Index. He cites historical data and current market conditions, including weak seasonality, stretched positioning, and overpriced stocks, as reasons for his caution. Investors are advised to exercise caution and consider hedging their positions with put options.
FAQs
Q: What is the S&P 500 Index?
A: The S&P 500 Index is a widely followed stock market benchmark that tracks the performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US.
Q: What is a tactical strategist?
A: A tactical strategist is a financial analyst who focuses on short-term market trends and makes recommendations for investors based on those trends.
Q: What are Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 December lookback put options?
A: Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 December lookback put options are financial derivatives that allow the holder to exercise a put option at the most beneficial price of the underlying asset, over the life of the option. In this case, Rubner recommends buying these options as a way to hedge against potential market declines.
Q: Why is August typically the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds?
A: August is typically the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds because investors tend to reduce their exposure to the market after a strong summer, and the third quarter is often characterized by a lack of catalysts for the market.
Author: fortune.com
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